Software-generated emissions predictions deliver 90% accuracy – study

Maritime software firm Signal Ocean reports that it has completed a study comparing actual vessel CO2 emissions with algorithmic predictions, finding that real-time software-generated emission estimates delivered better than 90% accuracy in reporting.

The study compared historical records of actual CO2 emissions from approximately 40 tankers that were part of the Signal Maritime pool against estimates created by Signal Ocean’s Emissions algorithm.

The company notes that demonstrations of the accuracy of software-based emissions estimates are critical if they are to provide a trustworthy source of data indicating a vessel’s CII (Carbon Intensity Indicator) rating in 2023 and beyond. The IMO’s MARPOL Annex VI CII legislation takes effect from the beginning of next year.

Signal Ocean estimates vessel emissions, like CO2, from AIS data converted into voyages, where all stops for bunkering operations, idle times, repairs, loads and discharge operations are taken into account.

At sea, ballast and laden legs and Sulphur Emission Control Area navigation times are defined, with fuel consumption mapped to different fuel types (VLSFO, MGO, HSFO) based on the area that vessels have been trading. The software also takes into consideration vessel particulars including dimensions, country and year of construction, scrubber fitting, consumption curves, operational conditions and speeds.

“CII estimations for any vessel or voyage, past, current or future, allow Signal Ocean users to factor in environmental performance at the time they are weighing their chartering options,” said Signal Ocean COO, Dimitris Tsapoulis.

“Anecdotally, traders using the service reported back accuracies that were very close to their own internal calculations, based on actual measurements; we were delighted to see yet another data point in Signal Maritime’s figures.”

“What is even more inspiring than seeing a system with high accuracy estimations is to see the Signal Maritime team producing top-of-class environmental performance by closely tracking and simulating it through data. Environmental performance will undoubtedly play an increasingly critical role in economic success as we approach 2030 and beyond.”

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Rob O'Dwyer

Rob is Chief Network Officer and one of the founders of Smart Maritime Network. He also serves as Chairman of the Smart Maritime Council. Rob has worked in the maritime technology sector since 2005, managing editorial for a range of leading publications in the transport and logistics sector. Get in touch by email by clicking here, or on LinkedIn by clicking here.

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