A new report by maritime analytics company Bearing has suggested that the global fleet is set to record lower CII scores than anticipated, with the company’s data models predicting that nearly 51.9% will receive a ‘failing’ CII grade of D or E.
The company notes that IMO’s own estimates have suggested that about 35% of ships will report a ‘failing’ D or E grade, with 30% to score a C – the lowest passing grade – and some 35% to receive an A or B.
Bearing’s AI-based analysis of the voyages of 15,372 vessels in the global fleet over the past year paints a more pessimistic picture however, predicting that only 21% of ships will get a passing C grade, with about 27% scoring an A or B.
The data model suggests that general and bulk cargo carriers will be the worst performers during the initial CII reporting phase, with 70% and 64% respectively to receive failing grades, while tankers will be the best performing sector, with only 1.14% expected to get a failing grade.
Ro-Ro passenger ships showed the greatest variability of scoring in the data model, with the highest projected proportion of A grades as well as the second-highest proportion of E grades of any vessel class.
Larger ships are also expected to fare better than their smaller counterparts, with ships up to 120,000 dwt projected by the data model to fail at a higher rate than IMO’s 35% estimate, and ships of less than 60,000 dwt more likely than not to receive a failing D or E grade.
The full State of Maritime Emissions: CII 2022-2023 Report from Bearing is available to download here.